OPEC+ agrees to boost oil output when Strait of Hormuz reopens

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MOSCOW/LONDON – OPEC+, a group comprising the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, has agreed on April 5 in principle to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May.

But this rise will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important oil route – since the end of February and cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq, the only countries in the group which were able to significantly raise production even before the conflict began.

Crude prices have surged to a four-year high close to US$120 a barrel, translating into soaring prices for transport fuels. The hikes are pressuring consumers and businesses across the globe and triggering government action to conserve supplies.

The OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 barrels per day represents less than 2 per cent of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens, OPEC+ sources have said.

Consultancy Energy Aspects called the increase “academic” as long as disruptions in the strait persist.

“In reality, it adds very few barrels to the market,” said Dr Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official who now works as head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. “When the Strait of Hormuz is closed, additional barrels from OPEC+ become largely irrelevant.”

OPEC+ concerned about attacks on energy assets

Eight members of OPEC+ agreed to the increase in May quotas at a virtual meeting on April 5, OPEC+ said in a statement.

Besides disruptions affecting Gulf members, others – such as Russia – are unable to increase output. In Moscow’s case, it is due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine.

Inside the Gulf, damage to infrastructure from missile and drone attacks has also been severe.

Several Gulf officials have said it would take months to resume normal operations and reach production targets even if the war stopped and Hormuz reopened immediately.

A separate OPEC+ panel that also met on April 5, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they are expensive and time-consuming to repair and therefore impact supply, OPEC+ said in a statement.

Iran on April 4 said Iraq was exempted from any restrictions to transiting the vital route, and shipping data on April 5 showed a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the strait.

Still, it remains to be seen if more vessels will take the risk involved, a source close to the issue said.

War causes world’s worst oil supply disruption

At its last meeting on March 1, just as the war began to disrupt oil flows, OPEC+ agreed to a modest output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April.

A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 million to 15 million barrels per day, or up to 15 per cent of global supply.

Oil prices could spike above US$150 – an all-time high – if flows via Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May, JPMorgan said on April 2.

OPEC+ consists of 22 members including Iran.

In recent years, only the eight countries meeting on April 5 have been involved in monthly production decisions, and they started in 2025 to unwind previously agreed output cuts to regain market share.

The eight raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025, before pausing increases for January to March 2026. 

The eight hold their next meeting on May 3. REUTERS